How To Bet Nfl Win Totals

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  • And this quote is the perfect summation of what it takes to be successful betting on NFL win totals. I have been one of the most prolific NFL futures bettors in the sports information industry.
  • Win totals are out for all NFL teams the 2020 season. Every year, teams exceed those expectations, but the hard part is to know which teams will. Here we give you five teams on which you should take the Over and why. 2020 win totals. Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list.
  • Basic Strategy for Betting Totals. Are you getting bored of simply betting on who will win the game each time? Change it up and bet on the total instead. Total betting is essentially a 50/50 proposition on whether the total points scored by both teams will go over or under the bookmaker’s posted total.
  • NFL totals betting is rather self-exploratory. Also known as over/under, this form of betting involves placing a wager on the total number of points scored by both teams combined in a game. Let’s say bookmakers set an over/under of 55 points for the Chiefs and Steelers.

You can bet on win totals and more when you hit the football props market. Most of the football bets you’ll ever make will be straight bets on individual games: the point spread, the total.

Win totals are out for all NFL teams the 2020 season. Every year, teams exceed those expectations, but the hard part is to know which teams will. Here we give you five teams on which you should take the Over and why.

2020 win totals

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday, April 12 at 11:30 a.m. ET.

These are the win totals for all 32 NFL teams.

Arizona Cardinals: Over 7 -115, Under 7 -105Atlanta Falcons: Over 7.5 -110, Under 7.5 -110Baltimore Ravens: Over 11 -105, Under 11 -115Buffalo Bills: Over 8.5 -189, Under 8.5 +155Carolina Panthers: Over 5.5 -120, Under 5.5 +100Chicago Bears: Over 8.5 +105, Under 8.5 -125Cincinnati Bengals: Over 5.5 -110, Under 5.5 -110Cleveland Browns: Over 8.5 +110, Under 8.5 -130Dallas Cowboys: Over 9.5 -115, Under 9.5 -105Denver Broncos: Over 7.5 -105, Under 7.5 -115Detroit Lions: Over 6.5 -125, Under 6.5 +105Green Bay Packers: Over 9 -120, Under 9 +100Houston Texans: Over 7.5 -150, Under 7.5 +125Indianapolis Colts: Over 8.5 -154, Under 8.5 +130Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 5.5 +115, Under 5.5 -139Kansas City Chiefs: Over 11.5 -139, Under 11.5 +115Las Vegas Raiders: Over 7.5 -105, Under 7.5 -115Los Angeles Chargers: Over 7.5 -120, Under 7.5 +100Los Angeles Rams: Over 8.5 -139, Under 8.5 +115Miami Dolphins: Over 6 -110, Under 6 -110Minnesota Vikings: Over 8.5 -159, Under 8.5 +130New England Patriots: Over 9.5 +110, Under 9.5 -130New Orleans Saints: Over 10.5 -110, Under 10.5 -110New York Giants: Over 6.5 +105, Under 6.5 -105New York Jets: Over 6.5 -115, Under 6.5 -105Philadelphia Eagles: Over 9.5 +105, Under 9.5 -125Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 9 -110, Under 9 -110San Francisco 49ers: Over 10.5 -145, Under 10.5 +120Seattle Seahawks: Over 9.5 +125, Under 9.5 -150Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 9 -139, Under 9 +115Tennessee Titans: Over 8.5 -115, Under 8.5 -105Washington Redskins: Over 5 -115, Under 5 -105

5 Over bets to make

Looking to wager on NFL win totals? Place a bet at BetMGM.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 (-139)

The Bucs won seven games a year ago with QB Jameis Winston throwing 30 interceptions and with a defense that was awful most of the year. They replaced Winston with QB Tom Brady. The offensive weapons are still there and defensive coordinator Todd Bowles’ defense will be better from Week 1 as he has a track record of very good defenses.

Arizona Cardinals 7 (-115)

The Cards’ potent offense in 2019 will be even better. QB Kyler Murray enters his second year after an Offensive Rookie of the Year performance in 2019. RB Kenyan Drake will be there the whole season and they added WR DeAndre Hopkins. In free agency, they upgraded three starting spots. If the defense, which was almost the worst in the league in 2019, is only okay, they should still win more than seven games.

Detroit Lions 6.5 (-125)

The Lions won only three games last season but that can be attributed to QB Matthew Stafford being injured. They won three of eight games when he played. The defense improved in the offseason. They are good for a 7-9 or 8-8 season.

Houston Texans 7.5 (-150)

Despite what you think about head coach Bill O’Brien, Houston has had double-digit wins each of the last two seasons. That has more to do with QB Deshaun Watson than O’Brien. They did lose Hopkins to the Cardinals in a trade but he now has RB David Johnson, WR Randall Cobb and WR Brandin Cooks. They will still be relevant in the AFC South.

Indianapolis Colts 8.5 (-154)

The Colts won seven games in 2019 with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. Now they have an aging Philip Rivers but there is no doubt he is better than Brissett. The offensive weapons are still there and the defense is still talented.

Best nfl win total bets

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Do you bet a team will win more than the 9 games they’re projected to win or under?

This article will answer that question. It will lay out examples you need to consider making educated bets on teams’ projected win totals so when you wager win totals, you will increase your odds of winning.

This article gives you a blueprint and the examples are not telling you who to bet on and who to stay away from. Instead, it will give you a blueprint to research specific factors that will affect a team’s win-loss record.

Nothing is set in the NFL and even the most educated bettor can’t predict a perfect over-under on win totals. However, you can put yourself in the best position to win such bets if you know what to do.

Let’s explore 5 factors to consider when betting on NFL win totals.

How To Bet Nfl Win Totals Today

1- Strength of Schedule

The 1st factor is the most important. Analyze strength of schedule before you place a bet on either an over or under.

If a team projects somewhere in the 9-10 win column but they’re playing in a weak division plus the AFC and NFC division they’re slated to play is also weak…

They will probably win more than their allotted number of games.

You can say the same for teams slated to win that same number but are playing in the league’s toughest division and are playing a tougher AFC or NFC division.

In that case, you want to bet the under.

Strength of schedule is the overall indicator whether to bet the over or the under on projected win totals.

But there are other factors to consider that can show otherwise. I’m laying out 3 factors to consider before ending with a final factor you must consider.

2- Strength of Division

This one’s important. Suppose there are 3 solid teams playing in the same division and it has happened in the past.

There have been times the worst record in a division is 7-9, meaning all 4 teams can win. It also means all 4 teams can fall short of their odds.

Yes, 1 or 2 of those teams might reach and exceed their projected win total. It also means 1 or 2 won’t.

Instead, focus on teams whose divisions possess a larger discrepancy of team talent. If a rebuilding team or 2 are in the same division along with an above-average team, this could be a potential home run.

Especially if a team you’re targeting appears to have middle of the road talent. It’s likely this team will exceed their projected win total since 2 teams they’re playing will not win many games.

There are no guarantees, but a team like the Buffalo Bills are a good example of this in 2020. Per CBS sports, they’re projected to win 9 games. The New England Patriots are also sitting at 9.

The Bills, as evidenced in 2019, are on the rise.

They also traded for one of the better receivers in the game in Stefon Diggs. Their defense was phenomenal in 2019. One of the best in the league.

Who else is in their division?

2 weak teams in the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. Neither figure to do much unless the Football Gods have a miracle up their sleeves.

Let’s look at the Patriots. Right now their potential quarterbacks are Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham. A journeyman and a 2nd-year player drafted on the last day of the draft. Lightning doesn’t strike twice often in the NFL if you know where I’m going with Stidham.

That said, the Bills would be great to bet an over and the Patriots would be safe to bet the under.

Yes, Bill Belichick is still in New England.

But it’s hard for even a good team to win without a decent quarterback. Just ask Mike Tomlin of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

I’m not telling you what to do and who to bet on. I’m just laying out examples clarifying what I mean here and nothing more.

3- Offseason Roster Moves

Bet

Did teams you’re targeting to wager win totals on receive offseason makeovers?

If so, stop.

Many of these teams might look good on paper, but in reality, you’ll rarely see them break out. It happens, but most of the time these are oddsmaker traps.

Teams who may have signed a marquee quarterback, but have little more to work with are examples.

If a team overhauled their roster and most of the team hasn’t experienced playing together, it’s also a red flag.

Look for teams who’ve made roster moves to fill missing gaps. Too often, novice NFL gamblers will wager teams who made moves equivalent to what’s seen in Madden Franchise mode with the salary cap turned off.

This is real life, not a video game. Players need time to mesh and new rookies need time to get used to the NFL game. Some rookies adapt faster than others but they all go through growing pains.

Keep away from teams who are rebuilding and even if they nabbed a prize free agent or two, don’t be tempted. Teams like this might also make a blockbuster trade in the draft or before it. Again, stay away.

A good way to increase your odds of winning an over is to look for teams that are one or two pieces away.

Teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020, who signed Tom Brady, are a good example. The Buccaneers already have one of the best receiving duos in football and now they added an accomplished quarterback.

They have a solid defense, ranking 15th in yards allowed in 2019. They held onto a lot of players.

They also have to compete with the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South and they play Green Bay and Minnesota, 2 more playoff teams from the year before.

Add in the Super Bowl 54 champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, and Tampa’s path isn’t the easiest.

But they have a Tom Brady who can still sling it with an offense full of Pro Bowl-caliber players who’ve been in Tampa since their rookie seasons.

How To Bet On Nfl Odds

The Bucs went 7-9 last season with Jameis Winston, who proved to be a turnover machine and constantly gave opponents a short field. They put up a lot of points with Winston, and now they have a quarterback who takes care of the ball.

Online Oddsmakers will have the Buccaneers ranked higher than in 2019. They’re also likely to have Green Bay and New Orleans, the latter being a division rival, with a higher win total.

CBS sports have 8 NFC teams chosen to win more than the Buccaneers, who are sitting at 9 as I write this. It’s what I mean when I say the Buccaneers are safer picks for an over.

It’s not a guarantee, and this number can change but it shows that even inserting just one missing piece like Brady won’t skyrocket their over-under win total.

4- Roster Stability

News recently broke that the New England Patriots traded longtime tight-end who took 2019 off to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to reunite with Tom Brady. Oddsmakers are upping Tampa’s win total as I write this.

Gronkowski and Brady won 3 Super Bowls together with the Patriots, and Gronkowski will be 31 when the 2020 season begins.

Anyone who wagers money on NFL win totals in 2020 will take a hard look at Tampa. The Bucs also have arguably the best pair of receivers in football in Curtis Godwin and Mike Evans.

They have a fair tight-end in O. J. Howard to team with Gronkowski.

Looking at Tampa’s roster outside Brady and Gronkowski, it’s relatively stable. There are a lot of names from the last 2 seasons who are still with the team today. Now, they inserted a quarterback who doesn’t specialize in throwing the ball to the other team 30 times a season.

They also have a proven winner with Bruce Arians at head coach. This is a primary example of a team with a solid, stable roster who added through the draft and free agency. The Bucs will be a smart pick for an over.

Contrast this with the 2019 Browns, who oddsmakers believed would win the AFC North and far more games than the 6 games they won in reality.

Anyone dissecting Cleveland’s roster last offseason should’ve known. They had a rookie head coach in Freddie Kitchens. They had 2 new starters in the defensive backfield. They traded for a player whose brand is larger than the city of Cleveland in Odell Beckham Jr.

How To Bet Nfl Spread

Also, the Browns had discipline problems dating back to the preseason when sporting outlets reported the number of fights the team started in joint practices with the Colts.

The smart gambler would’ve stayed away from them.

Baker Mayfield jawed too often with the media. Myles Garrett missed the last 6 games after getting suspended for swinging a helmet at Steelers’ quarterback Mason Rudolph. Garrett was flagged earlier in the season for throwing an open-handed punch at Delanie Walker.

Beckham continually drew attention to himself on things that weren’t football-related.

Again, any gambler who conducted research would’ve stayed away from the Browns.

Nfl Bets For Today

The better bet for an over would’ve been the 14-2 Ravens, who hardly any oddsmaker had winning the AFC North prior to the 2019 preseason. Despite far more roster and coaching stability than Cleveland. Sure, they had a new quarterback, but most everything else was intact.

Especially the system the team had in place.

Don’t worry so much about who’s on the roster. It could be a roster full of Pro Bowl players but if they haven’t played together, they’re not a good wager. Even if oddsmakers say differently.

Best Nfl Win Total Bets

5- Research Divisions Other than Your Favorite Team’s

I don’t care how much you say you won’t, you will always overrate your favorite team. And you will always underrate their division rivals. My recommendation is that you wager over-under win totals on the opposite conference.

My favorite team is in the AFC and I know I will have a strong bias toward them.
The best thing for me to do is bet on the NFC.

How To Bet Nfl Win Totals 2019

Even if oddsmakers predict your favorite team will have lower win totals and it’s easier for them to overcome odds.

Don’t bet on them. Go to the other conference and wager them.

Conclusion

It seems like a lot, but it isn’t. If you follow the NFL year-round, pay attention to the league’s scheduling formula, and note who’s playing who, you will bet well predicting win totals.

Don’t make the mistakes in just looking at win totals and playing a guessing game.

And never bet the over if a team merely signed marquee players and drafted a few studs who never played on the same team.

There’s a lot that goes into increasing your odds on win totals and the best time to think about who you’re betting on is after the league schedule is generated in the spring, following the NFL Draft.