How To Get Good At Sports Betting

1. How To Get Good At Sports Betting Teams
2. How To Get Good At Sports Betting Games
3. How To Get Good At Betting

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Why do we love sports betting? It’s simple, fun, and it gives us an opportunity to make some money!

Beginners shouldn’t rush off to start placing wagers just yet though. You see, as simple as sports betting is, it’s not exactly easy to get everything right when you’re just starting out.

If you approach sports betting in the wrong way, it’s unlikely that you’ll enjoy it at all. You certainly won’t be on the right path towards making a profit.

We’re not saying this to STOP you from betting on sports. Far from it. We just want you to be prepared, and have the best chance of making money.

Our hope is that by reading this article you will be able to form as many good habits from the onset as possible. Below are our 20 top sports betting tips for beginners. That’s right, we said TWENTY. There’s plenty to learn whether you are a complete novice or whether you just need a little refresher.

Please note that you should follow ALL of these betting tips regardless of what your ultimate goals are. They’ll help to ensure that you have lots of fun, and they’ll give you a good foundation to work from if your aim is to win money consistently.

Here’s a quick overview of all our sports betting tips before we dive into the detail.

• Trust Us
• Set Achievable Objectives
• Learn All the Basics
• Set a Budget & Use a Staking Plan
• Be Selective
• Place Your Wagers Online
• Understand the Concept of Value
• Learn Some Simple Betting Strategies
• Always Compare Odds & Lines
• Keep Records of Your Betting
• Learn the Lingo
• Ignore Personal Bias
• Don’t Get Overconfident When Winning
• Don’t Get Disheartened When Losing
• Spend Time on Research
• Trust Your Judgement
• Avoid Betting When Impaired
• Experiment
• Join a Betting Forum
• Take Regular Breaks

Our first betting tip is extremely simple. Be confident that the advice we have to offer is truly valuable. Don’t pick and choose which pieces of advice to follow and which to ignore. There’s a good reason for everything we advise you to do, and we promise that following it WILL benefit you: in both the short term and the long term.

Please note that this doesn’t just apply to the advice on this page, but to all the advice that we offer throughout our entire guide to betting on sports. We’ve worked very hard to make sure that our guide is as comprehensive as it possibly can be, and that it’s genuinely useful. We’re experienced bettors ourselves, and successful ones, so we really do know what we’re talking about.

There are no fees for the tips and previews we provide, nor is there any “premium content” that costs money to access. All of our content is premium in our opinion, and it’s all provided free of charge. Why do we give away all this free information and advice? We simply want to help our readers become responsible and competent sports bettors.

There’s no ulterior motive here. We take great pride in our work, and from the moment we started on our sports betting guide we had one single goal in mind. We wanted to produce the best sports betting resource on the internet. Have we achieved that goal? That’s not for us to say. All we know for sure is that we’ve tried our hardest, and that we continue to update and improve our guide in any way we can.

So please place some trust in us. We’re extremely confident that following our advice will lead to a much better sports betting experience. We’re not promising that we’ll help you to win millions of dollars. We’re not even promising that we’ll turn you into a winner at all. But we do promise that our advice will help to make sports betting more enjoyable, with a BETTER chance of winning money.

It’s not too difficult to win a few wagers when betting on sports. Anyone who’s even vaguely knowledgeable about a sport is likely to make accurate predictions at least some of the time. However, there’s a big difference between winning a few wagers and winning often enough to actually make a profit. That latter IS difficult. Very difficult.

The reality of sports betting is that the majority of people lose money at it. There are several reasons for this, but they’re not important right now. What IS important is that you understand that you’re more likely to lose than win as a beginner.

Some people start betting on sports with the belief that they can rely on their sports knowledge to beat the bookmakers. This is a mistake! It’s definitely possible to make a profit from sports betting, but it takes more than a little sports knowledge. Even a truly extensive knowledge is not enough by itself. There’s a lot that’s required to be a successful sports bettor, so please don’t think that you’re going be winning from the moment you start.

There’s nothing wrong with setting the long term of goal of making money. It’s important to be realistic though, and set achievable objectives. Your early objectives should be based on learning more and trying to improve gradually. Once you’ve gained some experience, you can start to set more complex goals.

Of course, the goal may simply be to enjoy yourself. That’s certainly an achievable objective in the short term. In fact, focusing on having fun is arguably the best approach as a beginner. It’s still possible to start taking things more seriously at a later stage.

If you’re not entirely sure what your objectives are, or should be, please consider reading the article listed below.

Learn All the Basics

We stated at the very start of this article that sports betting is very simple, but that doesn’t mean you should just get started right away. Learning the basics before you start placing wagers will put you in a much better position to enjoy the experience of betting on sports. The basics alone may not be able to help you make an overall profit, but they will get you started on the right track.

Luckily for you, we’ve summarized the most important sports betting basics in a single article. This article will be particularly useful for beginners, and covers all of the following.

• Fixed odds betting explained
• Components of a sports wager
• Different types of sports wager
• Alternative forms of sports betting
• How to bet with a bookmaker
• Why bookmakers make money

One of our team wrote an excellent blog post on how sports betting works, and that’s also a really good read for beginners.

How Sports Betting Works - A Guide to Understanding Sports Betting

Wagering is almost as old as man. You can find places in the Bible where it talks about casting lots, which is a form of gambling. No one knows for sure when the first bet was made on a sporting event, but the odds are that it was made soon after sports were...

Every single tip on this page is important, but none of them are more important than this one. Regardless of how much money you have, or what your short term or long term goals are, you simply MUST set a budget. Remember, losing money is a far more likely outcome than winning money. You need to decide how much money you are prepared to put at risk, and make sure that you don’t start risking more if you lose it all.

You can set a daily budget, a weekly budget, a monthly budget or an annual budget. We have even heard of people setting aside of sum of money with no timescales attached at all. How you set up your budget is entirely up to you. Just make sure that your budget is set at an affordable amount and that it’s something you are determined to stick to.

No-one has an infinite amount of money, so everyone has to manage their finances to some extent. There are certain living costs that should always be the priority. Gambling with disposable income is fine, but gambling with money that is needed for other things is not. That’s when gambling can start to get out of control, and the consequences can be dire.

This is easily avoided by simply sticking to a budget. Sports betting is far more likely to be an enjoyable experience when it’s affordable, and there’s no need to worry about whether a wager wins or loses.

Ideally, you should also use a staking plan. A staking plan is basically just a set of rules that determine how much should be staked on each wager relative to the size of your budget. We recommend staking around 1-2%, and definitely no more than 5%. This will allow you to withstand a few losses without blowing your whole budget too quickly.

Using a staking plan has other benefits too.

• Less likely to chase losses during a bad run.
• Less likely to lose any money made from a good run.
• More likely to make rational betting decisions.

We explain these benefits in more detail in our article on bankroll management and using staking plans. We also offer lots of useful advice on how to manage your budget effectively when betting on sports.

One aspect of sports betting that is rather appealing is the amount of options it presents. These days we can bet on virtually any sport, and virtually any game, event, league or competition. We also have a wide variety of different types of wager to choose from. All in all, there are plenty of opportunities for getting our money down.

However, it’s important to be selective. Placing too many wagers can be just as damaging as staking too much money, as this is also likely to lead to losing money more quickly. It’s hard to consistently make sensible selections when placing lots of wagers, so it’s much better to concentrate on trying to find genuinely good opportunities.

We recommend thinking very carefully about how many different sports to bet on, and how many different leagues or competitions to bet on. It’s not necessary to focus on just a single sport, but it’s not a good idea to bet on too many either. Try to focus on the ones you know most the about, and definitely avoid those that you don’t really understand or follow.

The number of leagues or competitions is only relevant for certain sports. When it comes to tennis, for example, betting on every single tournament would be realistic. The same players generally participate in each one, so it wouldn’t be overly difficult to keep track of. Soccer is a completely different story. There are too many tournaments and leagues to be able to keep up with every single one of them. It’s possible to know enough about the players and teams in just two or three leagues though.

It doesn’t hurt to also consider how many games or events you’re going to bet on. Let’s look at football, for example. During the regular NFL season schedule, there are usually 15 or 16 games each week. Even if football was the only sport you bet on, and the NFL the only league, it still wouldn’t be advisable to try to bet on every game each week. It would make much more sense to pick a few games that presented the best opportunities, and concentrate entirely on them. This would almost certainly lead to better betting decisions, and therefore better results.

A similar principle applies to deciding how many wagers to place on a single game or event. There are dozens of betting options for each NFL game, but this doesn’t mean you have to place dozens of wagers. Again, it’s better to try to identify the best opportunities. If the total line is hard to call, ignore it and focus on the point spread. If that’s hard to call too, take a look at the moneyline or any of the other available betting markets.

Whenever there’s a good reason for placing a wager, you should go ahead and place it. But you should never place wagers just for the sake of it.

Betting online is without a doubt the easiest and most convenient way to place sports wagers. It also offers several distinct advantages over other methods. You can read all about these in the following article.

The hardest part of betting online is deciding which sites to join, because there are so many to choose from. Although the majority of sites are reputable and safe to use, there are a few that are not. You obviously only want to use the very best sites, but how do you know which sites are the best?

This is something we can help with. We make recommendations of the best sites to use, based on our own extensive research and testing. Each one of our recommendations has proved to be completely trustworthy, and they all provide an excellent all-round service. Signing up at any one of them will help you have a great overall experience.

We have actually ranked the top sports betting sites in a number of different categories. This makes it easy for you to find a site that is right for any personal preferences or requirements you may have. You can find all our rankings here.

Here’s a couple of extra tips related to betting online.

• Sign up with multiple sites
• Take full advantage of bonuses and rewards

Signing up with multiple sites is a good idea for several reasons. One of the biggest is that it makes it easier to compare odds and lines when placing wagers, which is something we discuss later in this article. Using multiple sites also means more bonuses and rewards to take advantage of, and these can prove to be very valuable.

What are bonuses and rewards? Well, they come in various forms but they’re basically money that sites give away to their customers. Virtually all sites offer bonuses or free bets to new customers, to encourage them to sign up. And most sites have some kind of loyalty program in place, to reward their existing customers and keep them happy.

It’s well worth spending some time learning how to get the most out of these bonuses and rewards, as they can have a big impact on how much you win or lose overall. We explain more in the following articles.

Value is a term that gets used a lot in relation to sports betting, but it’s something that a lot of bettors don’t really understand. The concept is reasonably straightforward, as value basically just measures the relationship between the odds of a selection and the probability of the associated outcome happening.

When the odds are higher than they technically “should” be based on the relevant probability, a selection is said to have positive expected value.

If your goal is to make money though sports betting, then it’s absolutely vital to properly understand the concept of value. It really is that important. In theory, you should only EVER place wagers after identifying positive expected value. This is ultimately the only way to make a profit in the long run.

We strongly recommend trying to understand value even if your goal is just to have some fun. Although it’s not quite so important to identify positive value when betting recreationally, we still believe you should give at least some consideration to value before making selections. Not only will this lead to better results, but you’ll also have a more enjoyable experience.

Most beginners don’t give any thought at all to the strategy involved in sports betting. This is perfectly reasonable, as there are lots of other things to focus on as a beginner. However, we believe it’s a mistake to ignore strategy completely. Most of the basics are relatively straightforward and easy to learn, and these basics can REALLY help a beginner make good decisions. Obviously, there’s no need to learn about ALL the strategy involved, but a little knowledge can go a long way.

With this in mind, we’ve compiled a collection of simple betting strategies that work. They are all ideal for beginners to learn and we explain each one in a very easy to understand way. We also demonstrate exactly how they work and how they can be used. Here are some examples of the strategies we cover.

• Arbitrage betting
• Backing heavy favorites
• Betting off market prices
• Betting based on winning streaks

We want to make it very clear that none of these systems will lead to guaranteed success. Still, we believe they have merit and are worth learning about. If you’re able to use just one or two of them effectively, you’ll stand a much better chance of making winning selections.

This is one of the easiest tips to follow. Comparing odds and lines is very simple, and takes just a few moments whenever you’re placing a wager. Since bookmakers and betting sites don’t all offer exactly the same odds and lines, by shopping around a little for each wager, you can make sure that you get the best possible deal for every wager you place. The differences in the odds and lines are usually quite small, but they add up over time.

To demonstrate this, here’s a list of the odds available from three random betting sites on a boxing match.

• betting site A
  Chris Eubank Jr2.10
• Chris Eubank Jr2.05
• Chris Eubank Jr2.00

Let’s say we wanted to back Daniel Jacobs here, for $50. If we took the odds available at the first site, we’d stand to win $36.50. If we took the odds available at the second site, we’d stand to win $37.50. If we took the odds available at the third site, we’d stand to win $40. That’s a difference of $3.50 between the worst odds and the best. Not a huge amount by any means, but still nearly 10%. An extra 10% every time we bet will certainly add up!

You can read more about comparing odds and lines, and the benefits it offers, in the following article.

Keep Records of Your Betting

Very few beginners bother to keep records of their sports betting. This is a mistake, for two reasons. First, without any records it’s hard to keep track of how much is being spent. And, as we explained earlier, it’s very important to monitor spending and stick to a budget. Second, keeping records enables you to study those records periodically and look for ways to improve. This is vital when the long-term aim is to make a profit.

We recommend recording the following information for each wager as an absolute minimum.

• Selection
• Odds of selection
• Size of stake
• Result of wager
• Payout received (if wager won)

How To Get Good At Sports Betting Teams

This information will help you keep track of overall spend (or profit), and it doesn’t exactly take long to record. So, there’s no excuse for not doing it.

Ideally you should go even further, and keep more detailed records that will allow you to analyze your own performance. We offer some advice for this in our article on record keeping and performance analysis.

The ten tips we’ve covered so far are all very important. You really need to follow each and every one of them if you want the best possible experience when betting on sports. The remaining tips we have to offer, listed below, are all a little more straightforward. And maybe a little less important. We still urge you to follow them though.

• Learn the lingo
• Ignore personal bias
• Don’t get overconfident when winning
• Don’t get disheartened when losing
• Spend time on research
• Trust your own judgement
• Avoid betting when impaired
• Experiment
• Join a betting forum
• Take regular breaks

There are lots of terms and phrases used in sports betting that you may not be familiar with as a beginner. You’ll pick most of these up as you go along, but it doesn’t hurt to try to learn them before you even get started. We can help with this, as we’ve compiled a comprehensive glossary of sports betting terms.

Most people place wagers on the sports that they enjoy watching the most, and it’s natural that they have their favorite teams and players. They obviously like to see those teams and players do well, and this can easily influence their selections if they’re not careful. It’s very common for people to bet on what they WANT to happen, without really considering whether that’s the right thing to do or not.

Now, backing your favorite team and players is not a major problem when betting for fun. But if you’re trying to make money, it’s important to avoid allowing bias to cloud your judgement. The best way to do this is simply to avoid any games and events where you have a personal interest in the result.

Although it’s hard to pick winners consistently when betting on sports, even beginners can go on a nice winning run from time to time. It’s important not to get carried away when this happens. It’s easy to become overconfident, and start thinking that you’re a betting genius. Chances are, luck just happens to be on your side right now. So please, try to keep your feet on the ground.

It’s equally important not to read too much into any losses. Losing as a beginner doesn’t mean that you’ll NEVER make any money. Not even the best sports bettors in the world win every single wager that they place, and in fact they can easily go on lengthy losing streaks where nothing works out as expected. If it can happen to them, it can happen to anyone. Don’t be discouraged if it happens to you.

There’s no need to spend seemingly endless hours on research, especially if only betting for fun. It’s worth investing at least some time though, even if it’s just reading a few relevant news articles, studying basic statistics or keeping up to date with current form. Simply watching sports on television can be considered research too, and that’s hardly a chore!

There are lots of “experts” in the media who love to give their opinions about how good certain teams or players are, and make predictions about how events are likely to go. There’s nothing wrong with taking on board the opinions of others, but try not to be too easily swayed by them. It’s important to put faith in your own judgement above all else.

There’s no right or wrong way to bet on sports. There are all kinds of different approaches that can be effective, and the best way to determine what works well for you is to experiment. By trying different systems and strategies, there’s a good chance you’ll eventually find an approach that yields positive results. You should also experiment with the various different types of wager, and with different forms of sports betting too.

We’ve mentioned how comprehensive our sports betting guide is, and how much useful information and advice it contains. You can definitely learn a lot by studying it, but it shouldn’t be the only resource you use. There are lots of other ways to expand your knowledge too, like joining a betting forum. Just reading discussions between other bettors can be very enlightening, and actually engaging in those discussions is even more useful.

Our final tip here is very simple, and one that we urge you to follow. Sports betting should always be fun to some extent, even if your ultimate goal is to make money. Avoid sports betting becoming more of a chore than a choice by taking regular breaks. This will help to keep it enjoyable, and coming back with fresh perspective can help with making good decisions too.

That concludes our top 20 tips, but now we’d like to leave you with one last point. If after following all of our tips, you find that you just don’t enjoy betting on sports, don’t carry on for the sake of it. Sports betting isn’t right for everyone, and there’s no shame doing something else with your money instead.

There’s also one more route to successful betting we have to offer you. Our resident betting experts provide regular predictions, picks, and tips on sports events. While we can’t guarantee that you’ll win every bet by following these tips, our experts are profitable bettors who know what they’re talking about.

Here’s a selection of their latest work, or you can go through everything in our betting picks section.

Whether you decide to follow our picks or not, we still recommend that you learn you to how to bet on sports profitably for yourself. Following all the sports betting tips on this page can help.

Most people who want to place bets on sports are fans to begin with. It isn’t unheard of for a gambler to place some sports bets, especially during big games like the Super Bowl or the NCAA basketball Final Four, but for the most part, sports bettors are sports fans looking to use their knowledge of a game or of a game’s players to earn a little extra cash. Being a fan of a particular sport, a team, a college or professional squad—these are all precursors to placing sports bet. Sports betting is also a way for a fan to get in on the action of the game, with something more than self-respect at stake.

All gambling is mathematics, even games of chance. If you understand the math behind the game, you understand the game and can give yourself an advantage. For many games, like penny slots or poorly placed roulette bets, are so bad that smart bettors earn their advantage by avoiding them altogether. In sports betting, the math is more complicated. Depending on your favorite sport, you may need to think about things like bye weeks, underdogs, quarterback ratings, and injuries with the same fervor other connoisseurs reserve for fancy winces.

So how difficult is sports betting math? The math behind placing a winning bet is fairly complicated, but the way to stay ahead of the bookmaker is rather straightforward. If you collect on 52.4% of your bets, you’ll break even. We’ll have more details on that number later, including why it takes more than 50% wins to break even, but first some general knowledge about sports gambling and the numbers behind it.

Sports Betting Basics

The easiest way to demonstrate the math behind a sports bet is to make up an example. Let’s say you and your buddy walk into a casino, each with $200 burning a hole in your pocket. There’s a big game on tonight, the Cowboys and the Redskins, so you wander into the sportsbook to check up on the latest news about the game. While you’re sitting there, you see the wagering board, with some funny numbers on it. It looks like this:

• 428 Cowboys +175
• 429 Redskins -4 -200 38

Some of this is easy enough to read. The Redskins -4 means the Redskins are favored to win and must do so by at least 5 points for a bet on the ‘Skins to pay out. The next number (-200) is the moneyline, in this case the Redskins are a 2/1 favorite. The last number (38) is the total, the over/under of the expected number of points scored in the game.

More on Placing Sports Bets

How To Get Good At Sports Betting Games

Look at that over/under number, in this case 38. If you or your buddy thinks this is going to be a particularly high or low scoring game, based on your knowledge of the team’s offenses and defenses, or information about a hurt player or bad playing conditions, you can place a wager on the total of points scored.

So how is a guy supposed to know how to literally lay down a sports bet? You need to know three things:

#1 – the type of bet you want to make
#2 – the number of the corresponding team you have chosen and
#3 – the amount you wish to wager

Knowing all that beforehand gives the ticket writer the details he needs to write the ticket without having to bend over backwards to process your bet.

Tipping and Sports Betting

We haven’t even gotten to the meat of the sports math yet, and we’re already talking about tipping the staff behind the window? Yep. Here’s why.

If you place two $100 bets, and you win, you’ll collect $440. You should consider leaving a tip around five percent of your winnings. Yes, that’s a $22 tip, but you just made a huge win, and surely you can spring for a twenty-spot for the guy who helped you win it. If you tip around the five percent mark regularly, when you win, you’re way more likely to get free drinks, which is about all you’re going to get comp-wise at the sportsbook.

So, back to the basic math of sports betting. You and your buddy, after much deliberation, decide to each place a $100 bet on your favorite team. What now?

To bet on the Redskins using the point spread, your bet is called “laying the points.” For your bet to pay off, the ‘Skins have to win by five or more to cover the spread. Remember, if the ‘Skins win by exactly four, the game is a push, and both sides recoup their bet. Another alternative is called “taking the points” with the Cowboys. That means the Cowboys have to lose by three or less for your bet to win, or if the Cowboys win outright. So you and your buddy go up to place your $100 bet, and you find out that the standard straight bet at any bookie pays 11/10. That means you have to bet $110 if you want to win $100. You and your buddy pay the bookie $110 and sit down with drinks to watch your bets come in.

These are deceptively simple bets. Deceptively because they make it look like the outcome of the football game is like the outcome of picking marbles out of a bag. Put one black marble and two white marbles in a bag, pull one out at random, and there’s your football game. After all, the odds are the same: 2/1 for white.

But we, as sports fans, know that the mathematics of a sporting event is much more complex. Sports bettors deeply involved in their hobby will subscribe to weather bulletins from major cities that take part in their sport, making huge wagering decisions based on a few mph of wind in one direction or another. Then there’s the unknown—does a player get hurt in the first quarter? Does weather become a factor? Is a particular player “in the zone?”

How Do Bookies Make a Profit?

Just as we finish ruminating on the concept of the difficult math at play in the background of major sporting events, we’re going to turn right back towards the simpler side of sports betting. Bookies make a profit because of vigorish. What’s vigorish?

Look at the above example again. You and your buddy each paid $10 to the bookie to place your bet. That’s what the standard 11/10 odds in sports betting are all about. You bet the Cowboys and your buddy bet the Redskins, a total of $220 bet. The sportsbook has to pay back $210 to the winner, leaving a nice $10 profit no matter what happens on the football field. That $10 built-in profit is called the vigorish, and it’s the final monkey wrench in the gears of sports betting.

Obviously, sportsbooks are going to take more than two bets on any game, but this example is for simplicity’s sake. Looking at the total number of bets on different games over the course of a week and adjusting the moneyline and other numbers is another way the bookie makes a profit. Adjusting the odds a tiny percentage point in either direction will affect the balance of beats and make the book more likely to turn a profit no matter what.

Essentially, a bookie is a person who holds on to money from bettors then pays them if they win and keeps their money if they don’t. That’s what the job is boiled down to its essence.

When a bookie sets odds for games, he will build what bookies call an “over round” into his set of odds. Another slang term used for this formula is “the juice.” For the sake of simplicity, let’s look at a boxing match where both contenders are equally talented, of equal stature, etc. Since they both have an equal chance of winning, a casual bet may be even money. You put $20 on one guy; your friend puts $20 on the other. Whichever fighter wins awards the bettor with the total of $40.

Bookies don’t offer even money like friends in a casual betting situation. In the above example, with two evenly matched boxers, a smart bookie will offer 5/6 odds for each. That way, a $10 winning bet would only return $8.30 plus your stake. What does this do for the bookmaker? He can float an equal amount of money on both fighters, winning no matter which fighter actually wins. If they take $1,000 worth of bets on one boxer and $1,000 on the other, the bookie would take in $1,000 but only have to pay out $830, for a guaranteed $170 profit regardless of the outcome.

Bookies look at the weight of their books all the time and adjust odds and other factors to make sure their books balance. Though it isn’t possible to completely balance a book, bookies that go too far out on one side run the risk of losing money, and losing money in gambling is the fastest way to find yourself in another industry. All of these factors are why bookies generally root for the underdog—too many favorites winning in a sport with a short season (such as the NFL) can cause a bookmaker to lose money, while a bunch of upsets (like you generally see in college football) is a guaranteed profit for the bookmaker.

The short answer here is that bookies making money has nothing at all to do with your betting. It is almost unheard of for a single customer to be allowed to place enough bets to sink a single book all on his own. High rollers in sports betting get special privileges in terms of their maximum bet size, but these privileges often change with the bettor’s luck—maximums get raised after the bettor sees big losses and decreased (sharply) when the bettor starts to get lucky.

In short, a sportsbook’s profits aren’t necessarily impacted directly by the way an individual bet is called. Unlike casino games or slot machines, where it’s you against the house, sports bettors fuel the bookmaker’s business and only rarely is an individual bettor betting against the bookie.

Sports Betting Odds

Remember at the beginning when we talked about the magic number necessary to guarantee a break-even week in sports betting? If you read enough about sports betting, you’ll hear this number repeated often: 52.4%. If a bettor can win 52.4% of his bets, he’ll break even. Where does that number come from?

When betting the spread, you get odds of -110. Sometimes, sportsbooks will offer a -105 line as a promotion or to welcome new business. But for the most part, if you’re betting the spread, you’re getting -110.

How To Get Good At Betting

We draw that 52.4% break even number right out of the odds. -110 is equivalent to 11/10. That means if you bet 21 games, you’d have to win eleven of them and lose ten of them to break completely even. Even at -105, you’d still have to win an astounding 51.2% of the time just to break even.

If you don’t trust the basic math behind this break-even principle, look at another real-world example. Let’s say you get really into sports betting after your Cowboys cream the Redskins and you go home with a nice fat wallet. You then bet on the next 10 Cowboys games, winning six times and losing four times.

That 60% betting record (with the odds of -110 that is traditional for against the spread bets in football) will leave you with a profit of $160. Think about it—your $600 profit from your 6 winning bets minus the $440 you lost on losing bets leaves $160. It took you $1,100 to win $160, meaning you have to bet $6.87 to win $1 on average. So you see the small differences between a 52.4% winning rate and a 60% winning rate—inside those 7.3 percentage points lies hundreds of dollars in profit.

Now imagine instead that you lost one of those six winning bets, leaving you with a 50% betting record. You spent a total of $1,100, won $500, and lost $550. That means overall your 50% record drained your wallet by $50. That’s where the vigorish will get you. Not even winning half the time is good enough to break even in sports betting.

Professional Sports Bettors

Believe it or not, some people really do bet on sports for a living. Maybe they work part time at a sportsbook or in some other marginal job in the casino industry, but there is a group of gamblers who bet on sports for their life’s work. With all the math swirling around in our heads after the last bit of the article, it’s hard to imagine anyone wanting to do this for a living.

If you know that a 52.4% record will mean you break even, the simplest way to turn sports betting into a career is to bet enough so that a 53% winning record will bring in the kind of money you want to make.

Another example. After your successful Cowboys experiment, you decide to invest $10,000 in sports gambling over the first four months of the following football season. That $10,000 is set aside to win or lose in sportsbooks.

You plan on betting on 160 games during your investment period. You dream of a 55% winning record because your win-loss with a 55% winning record would give you an 88-72 record. That’s an expected profit of +8.8 units. How did we get to that number? To calculate your units, subtract the total of your losses (multiplied by 1.1 to include the vig) from your wins and you’ll get your unit profit.

Placing $460 bets on each of these games, a number pulled from some quick and dirty math about how much you could afford to bet in a single week’s NFL play without blowing your bankroll, would result in a $4,048 profit if you maintain that 55% winning record. Turning $10,000 into $14,048 in just four months is an investment return of 40.48%. I dare you to ask your bank for that kind of return on your savings account.

But that’s all assuming you can pick the winner 55% of the time. Do your research, look into the records of professional sports gamblers. 55%, while not impossible, would place you among the elite sports bettors in the country, if not the world.

Professional sports bettors have to worry about variance more than any other type of gambler. Working against the forces of variance means managing your bankroll over the course of the season to avoid the negative possibilities that could totally empty your wagering account. Professional sports bettors have the time and resources necessary to calculate these variances, and there are even a few pieces of software out there that can help you figure out your ideal bet in the face of negative variance. But the bottom line is that professional sports bettors would dream of having a 55% winning record, simply because it guarantees you’re beating the house.

Pro bettors make their money on bets that sportsbooks offer that give them even the slightest betting advantage. The key to becoming a profitable sports bettor is being able to find advantages, opportunities where the line a book is offering is vulnerable.

This is why many long-term sports bettors are math freaks. Good sports bettors understand statistics, particularly what are called inferential statistics, though any higher math will help when it comes time to place a bet.

Here is what a professional baseball bettor might do in his head. After looking over statistics from MLB (kept religiously by all sorts of bloggers, data archives, and magazines) between the years 2000-2010, he notices a particular statistic pop out. For example: when the home team starts a left-handed pitcher the day after a loss, that team wins 59% of the time. Good sports bettors can do this sort of math in their head or very quickly on paper. From that bit of information comes a new betting theory—look for game situations that mirror the above example and bet on them. That means he’ll only bet games where the home team starts a left-handed pitcher the day after a loss. Does he just jump in and start betting based on this back of the napkin math? No way. More statistical analysis is required—he may find that this was a fluke for that particular decade and isn’t a trustworthy statistics, or he may find an even more advantageous bet based on his original theory.

Pro sports bettors also keep near-obsessive records of their bets. Obviously, no edge in sports betting lasts longer than a single game. Taking proper records will also help you test theories, like the above one about left-handed pitchers and losses. Without taking good records, no sports bettor’s bankroll will last very long.

What Is a Good Record for Sports Bettors

So, at the end of the day, what could you call a “good” record for a sports bettor? Most casual gamblers looking into sports betting see a pro advertising his 1100-900 record and shake their head a little. How could such an abysmal record be something to be proud of? That’s a 55% winning percentage, and it indicates to those in the know that this bettor is actually turning a profit placing bets on sports.

A good record for a sports bettor is any record equal to or larger than 52.4%, because that number or anything higher means you’re not losing money. A 53% winning record, while not impressive on paper, means you’re actually beating the sportsbook and putting money back in your pocket. Ask your friends that play the slots or play online poker how often they end up putting money back in their pocket.

A -110 wager, standard for spread bets in the NFL, gives the house a built-in advantage of 10%. It means that even if you do win, and you line up to collect your $100, some sucker behind you just spent $10 to hand the casino $100.

A good record for sports bettors is any record that ensures they at least break-even. If you bet 16 games this NFL season and you won 9 and lost 7, you probably made money. And taking money away from a casino is always something to be proud of.

Other Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles:
» Future Betting Strategy
» NFL Bye Week Betting Strategy
» Parlay Betting Strategy

Sports Betting Break Even Video:

In the video above I go over the break even % for sports betting, and we take a look at the difference between hitting 52% and 53%. I also quickly show the amounts of profits you can expect if you can hit 55% consistently.