Over Under Strategy

Soccer bettors are increasingly looking for more profitable markets than 1X2, for which a lack of goals or a late equaliser can deny even the best judgments a winning bet. A straightforward way to try and beat the bookies on the soccer front is with the Over/Under goals markets. This article offers a simple step-by-step guide on how to calculate probabilities for the expected number of goals in a match and convert them into odds, so that you know what to bet on and what to avoid.

1. Over Under Strategy
2. Over Under Betting Strategy Nfl

Step 1: Find the average number of goals per game

The total will be around 215-220 but is too hard to say it will go over or under 225, so there's no play for this game. Reply 0, Yes Patrick, I'll use an example from today's games. Handicapping Tips: OVER/UNDER Strategy As a sports bettor, you need to do some homework. Don’t worry, it’s not as intense as anything you had to do in high school – you’re simply handicapping your totals bets enough to make smart picks.

In comparison to most sports, scoring in soccer is a less frequent event and it is certainly not uncommon for a match to feature no goals whatsoever. This means that when it comes to betting, bookmakers study the average number of goals scored per match for the two teams involved in the fixture in question when assessing the odds for the Over/Under markets.

If over 2.5 goals for a Premier League match is available with Pinnacle at 1.925 and another bookmaker is offering the same bet at 1.800, you know that you are better off at Pinnacle. However, how you do assess if it is worthwhile betting your money on this market to begin with?

Suitably, the best place to start is with the same method as the bookmakers - by finding the average number of goals per game for the two teams involved in the match you are interested in betting on.

This is generally an easy figure to research online. To provide some detail, here are the average goals per game for several major soccer leagues and competitions during the last three seasons:

As the above table highlights, major soccer leagues and competitions have predominantly averaged between 2.5 and 3 goals per game in recent years, although any given league or competition should be considered on an individual basis. For instance, last season the Hong Kong First Division averaged a massive 4.12 goals per game, whereas the El Salvador Premiera Division only mustered a mere 1.83.

Step 2: Calculate the probabilities

The random nature of goal scoring enables statistics to follow a poisson distribution as a simple predictive model for Over/Under betting. It is important to establish what that means in practice.

In his book Taking Chances, John Haigh drafted a table that calculates the probabilities of a team scoring none, one, two, three or four or more goals based on their average number of goals per game:

For a match where the home team has averaged 1.2 goals per game and the away side have averaged 0.8, it is easy to determine the probability for under 2.5 goals occuring by using the above table.

Firstly, determine the correct scores that will lead to a winning under 2.5 goals bet (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, and 0-2). You can then find the respective probabilities for each team from the above table and mutiply them together to calculate the probability for each scoreline:

Since we know the individual probabilities of each potential score that can lead to under 2.5 goals occurring, we can add them together to get the overall probability of the match ending in under 2.5 goals and, therefore, a winning under 2.5 goals bet.

In this example, that would be:

13.5% + 16.2% + 10.8% + 12.96% + 9.9% + 4.2% = 67.5%

Step 3: Determine what odds are worth betting on

Once you have established the statistical probability of the match to end in less than 2.5 goals, you are then in a position to determine which odds you should accept.

To convert probability into decimal odds, you use the following simple formula:

In the above example, a 67.56% possibility corresponds to an equation of 100 / 67.56, which equates to decimal odds of 1.48.

This means that you should only bet on under 2.5 goals for a match if you find a bookmaker offering odds of higher than 1.48.

Naturally, this approach does not guarantee a winning bet. However, it does provide an easy to apply betting strategy with positive expected value that should secure profits over a long span of time when aggregrating your long-term losses and profits.

Do this research ahead of any match you are considering placing an Over/Under goals bet on and you can sit back and enjoy the action, knowing that you have put yourself in the best possible position to win your bet.

Over/Under video explainer

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Mastering over/under bets, also known as totals, isn’t as complicated as most people think. With decent knowledge about the league in question, the competing teams, their starting lineups and previous matches, over/under bets can quickly become a steady source of betting profit. Lots of betting experts use these bets to their advantage for that particular reason.

If you can dedicate the time and effort to explore these stats and numbers, chances are your betting slips will be fuming with totals-based returns.

However, you’ll still need to come up with a proper over/under betting strategy so you can set up goals and milestones for your betting campaigns.

Additionally, you’ll also need some sort of a guide to help you make use of all those numbers. Number crunching for the sake of number crunching means nothing in the world of sports betting. You need to understand what you’re dealing with to make the best approach at each particular match.

The number-crunching game is pretty much identical across all sports. They all have a certain number of quantifiable in-game stats you need to go through. When it comes to mastering over/under bets, depending on the specific type of o/u wager you opt for, you’ll have to assess teams’ goalscoring and defensive capabilities, chance creation, and average number of scored/conceded goals.

What are Over/Under Bets?

When it comes to mastering over/under bets, we need to start from the sports betting basics and learn our way up to advanced betting tips!

Over/under bets, AKA totals, are based on various quantifiable in-game occurrences. These are not your typical yes/no bets. Instead, sports betting sites specify a number, and you have to guess whether or not that in-game occurrence (for example, goals) will be higher or lower than the number specified by the bookie.

That’s basically the whole concept behind these bets.

Now, there are several options to choose from, and they all vary from sport to sport.

For the sake of keeping this guide as simple as possible, we’re going to be focusing solely on soccer. It’s the perfect sport for over/under bets as it has a ton of in-game occurrences.

That said, let’s check out the most popular soccer-based o/u options!

• Goals are the most popular o/u wagers for soccer since they’re easy to track and don’t require a ton of stats crawling. There are also several variations, such as total goals in the first half, total goals in the second half, and overall total goals. Make sure you know what you’re betting on before you invest too much money and end up squandering it!
• Yellow cards are popular too. They’re also quite easy to track, but you’ll often find yourself switching from one place to another to collect all numbers properly. Talking about cards, red-card-based totals are also available, but they usually have 0.5 as the default value, and it’s more like a yes or no bet, to be frank.
• Corners are essential set pieces, and physically powerful teams heavily rely on them. It’s quite challenging to make a long-term success with corner totals, but it’s doable. With a ton of stats crawling and league know-how, corner totals can become your go-to bet type for quick returns.
• Offsides is an o/u bet variation that isn’t as popular as the ones described above. Still, lots of soccer betting sites feature it so it’s worth

Mastering Over/Under Bets

The best thing about totals is their complete independence from typical match winner betting. These bets allow you to bet on matches without having to choose between team A or team B. You’re betting on the overall flow of the game, certain in-game occurrences that affect the game but aren’t reflecting the losing on winning teams.

However, you’ll still have to assess and analyze both teams as well as their past matches, track records, starting rosters, and so forth.

Additionally, you’ll also have to keep track of their injuries, fatigue levels, and team morale. Factors such as these can significantly influence the overall performance of a given team and impact your over/under wagers.

Mastering over/under bets requires a lot of hard work and even more stats crawling. Not sure which stats to analyze? Here’s a quick list of the most important ones:

Defensive/Offensive Records

Whether you are thinking of betting on total goals, yellow cards, corners, or anything else, the first thing on your bucket ought to be extensive research. As with everything else in the world of soccer betting, totals require a hefty amount of stats crawling and number crunching.

When it comes to total goals, the first thing you should analyze is defensive and offensive records of both teams.

Calculate the median number of goals in their last five/ten matches (or from the start of the season) and work your magic from there.

Another thing to keep in mind is roster changes. Even though this is more of an issue in sports with fewer players where each individual contributes more to the team, it still works in soccer. Moreover, check the injury lists, schedule (if it’s too tight, fatigue can be an issue), and everything player-related that could influence the overall score.

In other words, total goals under seems like the ideal option here.

If, however, both Messi and Suarez are playing and the opposing team can’t count on their starting defensive duo, total goals over should be the go-to option. There are many more examples such as these two, so stay on the lookout for anything and everything that can affect the match you want to bet on.

Match Importance

Match importance plays a vital role in teams’ approaches. You have to recognize such contests and adapt your wagers to match the tensions. Perhaps not so much in league competition, though, unless we’re talking about final fixtures that decide European championships or titles. Group stage plus playoffs are a completely different pair of shoes, with crucial matches (both 1-leg and 2-leg playoffs) that determine which teams go home and which advance to the next stage.

Additionally, high profile matches, those featuring title contestants, are often underwhelming as far as goals are concerned.

It doesn’t happen in every game, but it’s still the case more often than not. In such contests, teams take extra defensive measures and don’t focus their gameplay solely on the attacking end. In other words, be cautious when betting over on high profile matches.

Make sure all stats point towards a high-scoring match. Otherwise, you might be better off with under or skipping the game altogether.

Weather Conditions

The last thing we’d like to emphasize here are weather conditions and their effects on games. Typically, bettors believe hot weather results in more goals than rainy/cold weather. However, recent Premier League stats show absolutely no proof of relation between sunny/rainy days and the number of scored goals.

However, too much rain can affect other totals, and mastering over/under bets will require you to understand the trends. For instance, too much rain can be detrimental to teams who practice quick passing style of play. If the pitch gets waterlogged, the ball can’t travel as far as it usually does, which can drastically affect the match and teams’ ability to control the passage of play in midfield.

Additionally, overly hot weather (something which could be a problem in 2022 Qatar World Cup) results in players getting fatigued much earlier than usual. We’re talking both defenders and attackers. Typically, matches played in extreme heat often result in less energetic performances.

Over Under Strategy

If you want to increase your chances of winning over/under wagers, you have to take into account situations such as these. Extreme weather conditions, match importance, competition stage, and defensive/offensive records are just the tip of the iceberg. For those who want even more, you can always check out our in-depth over/under betting guide that features a ton of supporting info.

Over/Under Betting Strategy

As far as over/under strategy goes, there’s no one size fits all kind of deal. It all depends on the amount of time and money you’re willing to dedicate to betting, and your current knowledge about the league, competition, and sport you’re going to bet on.

Generally speaking, sticking to a high-quality soccer betting strategy ought to yield positive results.

However, if you’re planning to base all of your betting endeavors on totals, mastering over/under bets and adapting your soccer betting strategy of choice will be of crucial importance.

Bankroll management and understanding totals’ value should be your primary concerns. Once you get that rolling, the rest of your soccer betting strategy will fall right into place.

Expert Tips on Mastering Over/Under Bets

Crunching crucial numbers and coming up with (and then following) a betting strategy are great ways to increase your chances of winning. However, there are more things you can do to ensure your long-term profitability.

Here are three additional tips on mastering over/under bets that ought to make a proper betting expert out of you!

Keep Tabs on Line Movement

There’s no clear and cut method of approaching line movement, especially when it comes to totals.

Bookies adjust their odds and numbers depending on the amount of money bet on both ends, and it’s on you to make the best out of the current situation.

Quite often, the line movement will shift back and forth, and you’ll have to time your bets to get the best odds.

With high profile matches, there’s a simple rule of thumb that can help you recognize trends and act accordingly. Most casual bettors (and believe it or not, they’re the majority) take their time with bets.

They usually wait until the last day to lock their choices in.

That’s a well-known fact. However, it’s not that well-known that casual bettors love betting on overs. This, combined with casual bettors’ love for high profile matches results in significant line movements near the start of the match.

Over Under Betting Strategy Nfl

Well, if you’re thinking of betting over on a specific high-profile match, you should always do so as early as you can. Since the majority of bettors will be over on the same day (or the day before the match), bookies will adjust the odds accordingly. If, on the other hand, you want to bet under, betting late is the obvious way to go.

Find the Best Possible Totals

Sticking with mediocre soccer betting sites is one of the most common mistakes bettors do. It doesn’t matter if you’re a casual or a hardcore bettor, finding the best possible bookie is the best decision you can make before placing your bets.

As far as mastering over/under bets goes, finding the best possible totals is of crucial importance.

Moreover, we are not just referring to odds here; we are referring to the totals numbers specified by bookies as well.

Always try to find the best balance in terms of betting odds and totals numbers. By doing so, you’ll yield more significant profits and will have much higher chances of becoming profitable in the long run.

Stay Away from Odds or Evens

There’s another, unfortunately popular, totals variation that doesn’t allow you to choose between over and under. Instead, it allows you to choose either odd or even.

Obviously, these types of bets are based solely on luck and have no value as far as long-term profitability goes.

That said, you should stay away from them at all cost.

Even though they might seem entertaining to follow, they could end up costing you a ton of nerves, and even worse, a ton of money.

Final Thoughts on Over/Under Betting

Even though mastering over/under bets isn’t as complicated as most people think, it still requires much hard work. The number-crunching process is often time-consuming, which is why casual bettors don’t invest that much time in their picks.

If you’re thriving to become a professional sports betting expert, our mastering over/under bets guide should be a great starting point. With tips on assessing the crucial factors, betting strategy creation and advanced o/u tricks, you should be all set for your over/under betting future!